Causal Intelligence Model (CIM)

Causal Intelligence Model (CIM)

SimCode's Causal Intelligence Model (CIM) is a next-generation financial analysis model that leverages AI to analyze causal relationships between economic indicators and stock prices, enabling highly transparent investment decision-making. Unlike conventional AI models that rely solely on correlation-based predictions, CIM uncovers the reasons behind market movements, providing investors with a data-driven and logically sound basis for their decisions. By doing so, CIM helps reduce investment risk and maximize returns.

CIM analyzes markets and generates forecasts by integrating data from trusted public institutions and financial data services.
Stock Data: Acquired from premium financial data services
Economic Indicators: Utilizes data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), EIA, and other public institutions
Economic Forecast Updates:
- FRED economic outlook: Updated quarterly
- EIA economic forecasts: Updated monthly
- When official forecasts are unavailable, CIM generates its own predictions using proprietary machine learning models
By incorporating these data sources, CIM delivers high-accuracy forecasts that reflect real-time market changes.

CIM follows a structured process to ensure that investors can easily grasp market trends and make informed decisions.
1. Learning from Data: AI learns from historical economic indicators and stock price movements
2. Real-Time Updates: Latest economic indicators and stock data are reflected at the end of each trading day
3. Predicting Stock Prices & Economic Indicators: Forecasts stock trends and monthly market movements
4. Validation of Forecast Accuracy: Compares past forecasts with actual data to assess accuracy
For example, when CIM predicts the rise of a specific stock, it also presents detailed insights into the economic indicators driving that movement, such as interest rate shifts or macroeconomic trends. Rather than simply presenting numbers, CIM prioritizes investor understanding, ensuring that users comprehend why a stock price is expected to move.

CIM is designed to provide highly accurate and reliable market analysis. To maintain the highest standards, CIM only adopts models that meet the following criteria:
- Uses models where economic indicators and stock price movements show intuitive causal relationships
- Ensures consistency in economic forecasts and eliminates unreliable models
- Averages forecasts from only highly reliable models to reduce noise
- Calculates upper and lower bounds for forecasts to visualize uncertainty
Ultimately, CIM discloses average forecast accuracy for each stock over the past 12 months, allowing users to evaluate the reliability of each forecast model.

SimCode's Causal Intelligence Model (CIM) employs a data-driven approach to deliver highly reliable stock ratings. By accurately assessing market volatility and long-term growth potential, CIM helps investors make more strategic investment decisions.
Five-Tier Stock Rating System
Using advanced AI analysis, CIM evaluates each stock based on the following five-tier rating scale:
- Strong Buy: High probability of stock price appreciation; strong investment recommendation
- Buy: Expected growth potential; valuable addition to a portfolio
- Neutral: No significant expected changes; cautious approach advised
- Sell: Increased risk of price decline; review of holdings recommended
- Strong Sell: Significant downturn predicted; risk mitigation through selling advised
Unlike traditional ratings based solely on past price trends, CIM incorporates market conditions and economic indicators into a comprehensive analysis.

CIM evaluates stocks based on multiple key metrics to ensure real-time market dynamics are accurately reflected.
Change Rate:
- Measures the magnitude of stock price fluctuations
- Identifies highly volatile stocks that may attract investor attention or indicate risk
Forecast Accuracy:
- Daily calculation of how well past 12-month forecasts align with actual stock prices
- Closer to 100%, the more reliable the predictions
Win Rate:
- Measures how often the forecasted stock price direction matches actual price movements
Expectation Rate:
- Uses a time-weighted average to assess long-term growth potential
- Helps determine if a stock is likely to appreciate over time
Directional Accuracy:
- Evaluates whether the stock price moved in the predicted direction

SimCode's CIM is more than just an AI prediction tool. It serves as an intelligent partner that enables investors to gain a deeper understanding of the market and make confident investment decisions.
By avoiding the black-box nature of conventional AI models, CIM ensures that every prediction is backed by clear, explainable reasoning, making it a powerful tool for both institutional and individual investors.
Shaping the Future of Data-Driven Investing
With CIM, investors can make more accurate, transparent, and well-informed decisions.
CIM is revolutionizing investment decisions by combining AI-powered analytics with clear, data-driven insights. Experience the future of investing with SimCode.